Towards using SDO/HMI helioseismic far-side images to improve solar irradiance prediction

Nate
Holland
University of Colorado at Boulder
Natasha Flyer, University of Colorado at Boulder and Flyer Research LLC
Thomas Berger, University of Colorado at Boulder Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center (SWx TREC)
Shea Hess-Webber, Stanford University
Mark Vincent, MAVerick Analysis LLC
Poster
Predicting the solar EUV irradiance is a key element of thermospheric density modeling used in Low Earth Orbit satellite navigation and collision avoidance planning. Current methods rely only on solar near-side observations or flux transport approximations for far-side estimations of magnetic activity (the underlying cause of EUV irradiance variability). Here we outline our plan for using machine learning (ML) models trained on SDO/HMI far-side helioseismic phase maps along with SDO/AIA EUV images to infer global solar EUV irradiance. This global irradiance approximation can then be virtually rotated to give more accurate 1--7 day forecasts of solar EUV inputs to the thermosphere. We demonstrate the first stage of our ML models which regresses SDO/AIA images to the radio F10.7 index that is commonly used in current thermospheric density models, capturing the nonlinear relationship between EUV irradiance and the F10.7 index.

Poster category:

Poster category
Space Weather Policy and General Space Weather Contributions