A Kp Forecast Several Days in Advance From Solar Surface Extrapolated GSM Component Fields and Heliospheric-Derived Velocity and Density
Bernard
Jackson
Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, San Diego, United States
Poster
Our UCSD group now provides a Kp forecast up to five days ahead of the current time with a
70% chance of an occurrence to predict geomagnetic storms from a Kp enhancement greater than
5. We provide this from first principles using a machine learning tool and a prediction of GSM
magnetic field components, velocity, and density. This forecast is currently made available on
the UCSD website https://ips.ucsd.edu and to the NASA Goddard Community Coordinated
Modeling Center. Our automatic system operates using near-Earth spacecraft measurements and
Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) data from existing world radio sites to provide the density and
velocity forecasts. Magnetic fields using Global Oscillation Network (GONG) data sets provide
GSM fields at Earth extrapolated outward from the solar surface. We have known since 2018
that we were able to forecast GSM Bz fields. However, since the summer of 2024 our machine
learning tool has been used to provide the high Kp correlation with geomagnetic storms in
advance of our observations. We show past examples and a real time forecast of our analyses in
this presentation.
70% chance of an occurrence to predict geomagnetic storms from a Kp enhancement greater than
5. We provide this from first principles using a machine learning tool and a prediction of GSM
magnetic field components, velocity, and density. This forecast is currently made available on
the UCSD website https://ips.ucsd.edu and to the NASA Goddard Community Coordinated
Modeling Center. Our automatic system operates using near-Earth spacecraft measurements and
Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) data from existing world radio sites to provide the density and
velocity forecasts. Magnetic fields using Global Oscillation Network (GONG) data sets provide
GSM fields at Earth extrapolated outward from the solar surface. We have known since 2018
that we were able to forecast GSM Bz fields. However, since the summer of 2024 our machine
learning tool has been used to provide the high Kp correlation with geomagnetic storms in
advance of our observations. We show past examples and a real time forecast of our analyses in
this presentation.
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Space Weather Policy and General Space Weather Contributions
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