Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning
Gu, Q., Zhang, L., Jia, L., Delworth, T. L., Yang, X., et al. (2024). Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00802-2
| Title | Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | Q. Gu, Liping Zhang, L. Jia, T. L. Delworth, X. Yang, F. Zeng, W. F. Cooke, S. Li |
| Abstract | Coastal communities face substantial risks from long-term sea level rise and decadal sea level variations, with the North Atlantic and U.S. East Coast being particularly vulnerable under changing climates. Employing a self-organizing map-based framework, we assess the North Atlantic sea level variability and predictability using 5000-year sea level anomalies (SLA) from two preindustrial control model simulations. Preferred transitions among patterns of variability are identified, revealing long-term predictability on decadal timescales related to shifts in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation phases. Combining this framework with model-analog techniques, we demonstrate prediction skill of large-scale SLA patterns and low-frequency coastal SLA variations comparable to that from initialized hindcasts. Moreover, additional short-term predictability is identified after the exclusion of low-frequency signals, which arises from slow gyre circulation adjustment triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation-like stochastic variability. This study highlights the potential of machine learning to assess sources of predictability and to enable long-term climate prediction. |
| Publication Title | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Publication Date | Dec 1, 2024 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00802-2 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7g44vkb |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CPAESS Affiliations | UCP, SPS |