Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system

Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Koul, V., Ross, A., Stock, C., et al. (2025). Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system. Science Advances, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ads4419

Title Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system
Genre Article
Author(s) Liping Zhang, T. L. Delworth, V. Koul, A. Ross, C. Stock, X. Yang, F. Zeng, A. Wittenberg, J. Zhao, Q. Gu, S. Li
Abstract Using tide gauge (TG) observations, we identify pronounced multidecadal fluctuations in sea level along the US Northeast Coast (USNEC) superimposed on a long-term increasing trend. This multidecadal sea level variability, largely arising from fluctuations in the buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), substantially modulates the frequency of flood occurrences along the USNEC and serves as a source of multiyear predictability. Using an initialized dynamical downscaling decadal prediction system with a 1 / 12 ° ocean resolution, we demonstrate that flood frequency along the USNEC can be predicted on multiyear to decadal timescales. The long-term increasing trend in flood frequency, mainly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and associated radiative forcing changes, can be predicted a decade ahead. Furthermore, detrended flood frequency along the USNEC exhibits prediction skill for up to 3 years, as verified by TG observation. This multiyear prediction skill is achieved using prediction models that are initialized from our best estimate of observed AMOC.
Publication Title Science Advances
Publication Date May 16, 2025
Publisher's Version of Record https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ads4419
OpenSky Citable URL https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7w95fmn
OpenSky Listing View on OpenSky
CPAESS Affiliations UCP, SPS

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