Hybrid post-processing of NCEP GEFSv12 reforecasts for extreme rainfall events over India
Malasala, M. N. R., Tallapragada, V.. (2025). Hybrid post-processing of NCEP GEFSv12 reforecasts for extreme rainfall events over India.
| Title | Hybrid post-processing of NCEP GEFSv12 reforecasts for extreme rainfall events over India |
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| Genre | Conference Material |
| Author(s) | Murali Nageswara Rao Malasala, V. Tallapragada |
| Abstract | Climate change has increased atmospheric moisture by 7% per 1°C of warming, intensifying extreme rainfall events in South Asia without changing total rainfall. These events cause significant damage in India (~$3 billion annually), highlighting the need for better prediction systems. While numerical weather models like NOAA's GEFSv12 have improved forecasting capabilities, they still struggle with tropical monsoon predictions, particularly for extreme rainfall on sub-seasonal timescales. This study introduces a Hybrid method combining Artificial Neural Networks with Quantile-Quantile techniques to enhance extreme rainfall predictions in India, aiming to improve forecast accuracy across weekly to monthly timescales for better disaster preparedness and risk management. |
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| Publication Date | Mar 17, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wm1jt5 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CPAESS Affiliations | UCP, SPS |