Has Improving Hurricane Track Forecasts Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasting?
Jenkins, C., Judt, F., Nystrom, R. G., Johnston, B. R.. (2024). Has Improving Hurricane Track Forecasts Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasting?. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/7heh-p283
| Title | Has Improving Hurricane Track Forecasts Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasting? |
|---|---|
| Genre | Manuscript |
| Author(s) | Chandler Jenkins, Falko Judt, Robert G. Nystrom, Benjamin R. Johnston |
| Abstract | Hurricanes are among the most impactful storms in the world, leading to the investment of many resources to improve hurricane forecasting. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on improving hurricane intensity forecasts, which are often regarded as one of the biggest challenges in meteorology. We have recently seen slight improvements in hurricane intensity forecasting, but questions remain about the nature of these improvements. Drastic improvements in hurricane track forecasting could be influencing some of the improvements seen in hurricane intensity forecasting. In this study, we are investigating the interaction between these two forecasts, looking for correlations and patterns between intensity and track forecast errors in the National Hurricane Center database. Preliminary results indicate there is a very weak to no relationship between track and intensity forecasting, implying that the improvements in intensity forecasting are independent of improvements in track forecasting. |
| Publication Title | |
| Publication Date | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.5065/7heh-p283 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7k078nw |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CPAESS Affiliations | UCP, SPS |