Verification of SWPC Kp, Ap, and F10.7cm Forecasts

Providing accurate operational forecasts for the impacts of space weather events is of critical importance to end users such as operators of satellites, the electric grid, and commercial aviation. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) releases daily forecasts of the Kp and Ap index, which measure the variability of the earth’s geomagnetic field, and F10.7 solar radio flux, which is used as a proxy for solar UV and EUV emissions. We conduct a forecast verification study comparing the skill of these SWPC forecasts to unsophisticated baseline models.