David M Straus

We are analyzing the intra-seasonal fluctuations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation and its relationship to extreme precipitation in India on the regional level. This includes the representation of these intra-seasonal fluctuations and associated modulation of extreme events in both short-range to seasonal forecasts, and in climate models. This will encompass helping to develop a new diagnostic approach to the active-break cycle of such importance to the Indian Monsoon, common errors in forecasts of this cycle, and assessments of its likely change in a future climate.