CPAESS Discovery Seminar: How predictable are North American summer heat extremes on the subseasonal timescale?
Please join CPAESS for a virtual seminar talk with Baoqiang (Bao) Xiang, CPAESS Scientist V, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
WHEN: Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 11:00am MT (Virtual)
PRESENTER: Baoqiang (Bao) Xiang, CPAESS Scientist V, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
TITLE: How predictable are North American summer heat extremes on the subseasonal timescale?
SUMMARY: The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of the summertime heat extremes remains a critical, yet underexplored challenge. Using a recently developed GFDL SPEAR S2S prediction system, we assessed the S2S prediction of weekly hot days (WHD) over North America. The system exhibits significant predictive skill of WHD at a two-week lead, particularly over northwestern North America and regions east of the Great Lakes. The highest skill extends to week 3 in the south-central U.S.
Baoqiang Xiang is a CPAESS Scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). His research focuses on numerical model development and large-scale climate variability and predictions. He is currently working on developing the GFDL’s next-generation Atmospheric Model AM5 and the GFDL subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system.
Baoqiang Xiang is the 2019 recipient of the WCRP/WWRP International Prize for Model Development.
For more information, visit the CPAESS Discovery Seminars page
