36th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Agenda Track

Agenda

Poster Agenda

Presentations

Monday, October 3, 2011
07:00-08:00 Registration & Continental Breakfast (Crystal A)
08:00-08:20 Welcoming Remarks

Wayne Higgins, Director – Climate Prediction Center

D avid Brown, Director – NESDIS-RCS/Southern Region

Bill Proenza, Director – NWS/Southern Region

Session 1:  Annual Review of Weather & Climate and Climate Operations

                                Chair:  Wayne Higgins, CPC
08:20-08:40 Overview of the 2010-11 La Nina Episode - INVITED Michelle L’Heureux, CPC 
08:40-09:00 State of the 2010-2011 U.S. Climate and 2011-2012 Outlook - INVITED Mike Halpert, CPC
09:00-09:20 Climate Perspectives on the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season - INVITED Gerry Bell, CPC
09:20-09:40 Review of the 2011 Global Monsoon Seasons - INVITED Muthuvel Chelliah, CPC
09:40-10:00 Aspects of MJO Dynamics: An Overview of the 2010-2011 Activities - INVITED Bin Wang, IPRC/MET,

University of Hawaii
10:00-10:20 Morning Break (Crystal Foyer)
                             Chair:  Mike Halpert, CPC
10:20-10:40 Performance of Climate Model Forecasts during 2010-2011 - INVITED Wanqiu Wang, CPC
10:40-11:00 Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002-2011: Is Our Capability Increasing - INVITED Tony Barnston, IRI
11:00-11:40 KEYNOTE – Much Ado About Nothing – Wither U.S. Drought? Kelly Redmond, DRI/WRCC
11:40-13:00 Lunch (On your Own)
Session 2:  Drought, with Special Emphasis on the 2011 Southern Plains 

                                Chair:  David Brown, NCDC/RCSD-SR
13:00-13:20 The 2011 Drought in Texas: Real-Time Monitoring and Historical Perspective John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist,

Texas A&M University
13:20-13:40 An Assessment of the Texas Drought of 2010-2011 and the Role of Seasonal Forecasts in Helping Stakeholders Make Informed Decisions Victor Murphy, NWS-SR
13:40-14:00 South-Central U.S. Droughts and La Nina Klaus Wolter, CIRES CDC
14:00-14:20 U.S. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting from a Near-Real Time Operational Aspect David Miskus, CPC
14:20-14:40 Afternoon Break (Crystal Foyer)
                             Chair:  Victor Murphy, NWS-SR
14:40-15:00 NLDAS Contributions to the Operational U.S. Drought Monitor and Prediction Youlong Xia, NCEP/EMC
15:00-15:20 Agricultural Drought Prediction based on Soil Moisture Anomalies Kingtse Mo, CPC
15:20-15:40 Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System Chad McNutt, NOAA-NIDIS
Session 3:  Extreme Weather and Climate Events 

                                Chair:  Kingtse Mo, CPC
15:40-16:00 Understanding the Statistics of Climate Extremes Kathy Pegion, NOAA/ESRL/PSD

and CU CIRES
16:00-16:20 Best Describing Extremes in Terms of Starting Time, Duration, and Intensity Eric Lu, Iowa State University
16:20-16:40 Primary Factors Contributing to Japan’s Extremely Hot Summer of 2010 Nobuyuki Kayaba, JMA
16:40-17:00 Comparison of Extreme Precipitation and Its Long-Term Changes between China and the United States Fang Wang, CPC
18:00-20:00 Icebreaker (East Promenade)

Tuesday, October 4, 2011
07:00-08:00 Continental Breakfast (Chrystal A)
Session 3:  Extreme Weather and Climate Events (continued)

                                Chair:  Klaus Wolter, CIRES CDC
08:00-08:20 Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics Cecile Penland, CIRES CDC
08:20-08:40 The Changing Monsoon Extremes and Dynamics: Example in Pakistan Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah Climate Center,

Utah State University
08:40-09:00 Association of U.S. Tornado Counts with the Large-Scale Environment on Monthly Time Scales Michael Tippett, IRI
09:00-09:20 Seasonal Prediction of Extreme Rainfall Events Simon Mason, IRI
09:20-09:40 Morning Break (Crystal Foyer)
Session 4:  Climate Models and Forecast Techniques 

                                Chair:  Xingzhong Liang, University of Maryland
09:40-10:00 A Significant Advance in Calculating EOFs from Very Large Data Sets Huug van den Dool, CPC
10:00-10:20 Intraseasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon and Tropical Cyclogenesis Joshua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii
10:20-10:40 Using Hydrostatic and Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics for Regional Downscaling as Multi-Model Ensembles Henry Hann-Ming Juang, NCEP/EMC
10:40-11:00 Introduction to the KMA Meteorological Office Joint Seasonal Forecasting System and Evaluation of Its Hindcast Ensemble Simulations Hyun-Suk Kang, KMA
11:00-11:20 A Simplified Early August Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction Scheme Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University
11:20-11:40 CWRF Downscaling Enhancement on Seasonal-Interannual Climate Prediction Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, ESSIC
11:40-12:00  A Verification Framework for Interannual to Decadal Prediction Experiment Lisa Goddard, IRI
12:00-13:00 Lunch (On your Own)
Session 4:  Climate Models and Forecast Techniques  (continued)

                                Chair:  Marina Timofeyeva, NWS/OCWWS
13:00-13:20 Improvements to and Verification of Intraseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis David Meyer, Naval Postgraduate School
13:20-13:40 Development of a Seasonal Climate and Stream Flow Forecasting Test Bed for the Colorado River Basin Andy Wood, NWS Colorado River

Basin Forecast Center
13:40-14:00 Alternative Methods for Evaluating Seasonal rainfall Forecasts Dong-Wook Shin, COAPS, Florida State University
14:00-14:20 Performance Characteristics of Forecasts based upon a Lagged Ensemble from the NCEP Climate Forecast System David Unger, CPC
14:20-14:40 Enhancing National Hydrological Seasonal Forecasts by Optimally Downscaling CFSv2 Eric Wood, Princeton University
14:40-15:00 Assessment of the CMIP5 Models: Trend, ENSO, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the 20th Century Sea Surface Temperatures Lydia Stefanova, COAPS, Florida State University
15:00-15:20 Afternoon Break (Crystal Foyer)
                             Chair:  Tony Barnston, IRI   
15:20-15:40 Implementation of Land Information System in the NCEP Operational Climate Forecast System Jesse Meng, NCEP/EMC 
15:40-16:00 Problem of Cloud Overlap in Radiation Process in JMA Global NWP Model Ryoji Nagasawa, JMA
16:00-16:20 Preliminary Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Monthly and Seasonal Prediction Qin Zhang, WYLE, CPC
Session 5:  Climate Variability and Attributions

 
16:20-16:40 An Update on MJO Task Force Activities and Plans Duane Waliser, NASA/JPL
16:40-17:00 Tropical Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in the CFSR Wanqiu Wang, CPC
18:00-20:00 Poster Event (East Promenade)

Wednesday, October 5, 2011   
07:00-08:00 Continental Breakfast (Chrystal A) 

Session 5:  Climate Variability and Attributions (continued)

                               Chair:  Cecelle Penland, CIRES CDC
08:00-08:20 Relationship between Anomalies of Eurasian Snow and Southern China Rainfall Winter Zhiyan Zuo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
08:20-08:40 Climatic Role of North American Low-Level Jets on U.S. Regional Tornado Activity Scott Weaver, CPC
08:40-09:00 Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections in Boreal Summer: Observed Interannual Variability Qinghua Ding, University of Washington
09:00-09:20 Persistent Cloudiness Features over the Southern Ocean Forced by Ocean Bottom Topography Michael Douglas, NSSL 
09:20-09:40 Decadal Variability of the North American Monsoon Duration and Intensity and Its Potential Causes Rong Fu, University of Texas
09:40-10:00 Morning Break (Crystal Foyer)
                             Chair:  Scott Weaver, CPC
10:00-10:20 Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Eastern Pacific in a High Resolution CGM Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA
10:20-10:40 Metrics for Boreal Summer and Asian Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation June-Yi Lee, IPRC, University of Hawaii
10:40-11:00 The Impact of MJO and ENSO on Wintertime Weather Regime Frequency over the Pacific/North American Region Emily Riddle, WYLE, CPC
11:00-11:20 On the Connection between Low-Frequency Modulation of Large-Scale Weather Regimes and Springtime Extreme Flooding over the U.S. Midwest Andrew Robertson, IRI
11:20-11:40 The Limits of Detecting Forced Responses on Seasonal and Continental Scales Liwei Jia, COLA
11:40-13:00 Lunch (On your Own)
Session 6:  Applications of Climate Information and Improved Climate Services

                                Chair:  Fiona Horsfall, NWS/OCWWS  
13:00-13:20   CLIMAS-CPC Collaborative Development of an Interactive Web Tool for 3-Month Outlooks  Holly Hartmann, CLIMAS, University of Arizona 
13:20-13:40 Tools, Techniques, and Metrics in Operational Extended and Long-Range Environmental Prediction Melissa Ou and Ed OLenic, CPC 
13:40-14:00  Monitoring Users Satisfaction of NWS Climate Products and Services  Marina Timofeyeva, NWS/OCWWS
14:00-14:20  Assessing the Value of Climate Predictions in Agriculture using the Stochastic Production Frontier Approach  David Letson, RSMAS, University of Miami
14:20-14:40 Seasonal Forecasting Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason, IRI
14:40-15:00 An Updated and Expanded Version of the WMO-GHCN Data base for Mexico Art Douglas, Creighton University
15:00-15:20 Afternoon Break (Crystal Foyer)
                             Chair:  Doug Kluck, NCDC/RCSD-CR
15:20-15:40 Stochastic Decadal Simulation: Utility for Water Resources Planning Arthur Greene, IRI
15:40-16:00 Global Precipitation Diurnal Variations Depicted in the Observation and Reanalysis Pingping Xie, CPC
16:20-16:40 Wildland Fire Climate Needs Roundtable Peter Roohr, NWS/OST
16:40-17:00 Reflections on the Development of Climate Services Mike Harrison, Climate-Insight

18:30-21:00 

19:30 Start

Dinner Banquet (Chrystal D)

Speaker:  J.D. Granger, Executive Director of the Trinity River Vision Authority

"Project Overview of the Trinity River Vision"

Thursday, October 6, 2011
07:45-08:30  Continental Breakfast (Chrystal A)   
Session 7a:  Climate Test Bed PI Reviews - MME

                                Chair:  Jin Huang, CPC     
08:30-08:45 An Update on NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB)  Jin Huang, CPC 
08:45-09:00 ENSO Prediction with CCSM3 and CCMS4 Ben Kirtman, RSMAS, University of Miami
09:00-09:15 Recalibrating and Combining Ensemble Predictions Michael Tippett, IRI
09:15-09:30 Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of MJO: Progress of ISV Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE) and Preliminary Results Bin Wang, IPRC/MET, University of Hawaii 
09:30-09:45 Progress in the Development of Subseasonal Ensemble Forecast Techniques Siegfried Shubert, NASA/GSFC
09:45-10:00 Is Unequal Weighting Significantly Better than Equal Weighting for Multi-Model Forecasting Liwei Jia, COLA
10:00-10:15 Overview of the U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) ISI Prediction System Ben Kirtman, RSMAS, University of Miami
10:15-10:30 The National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for Seasonal Prediction at NCEP Huug van den Dool, CPC
10:30-11:00 Morning Break (Crystal Foyer)
Session 7b:  Climate Test Bed PI Reviews - CFS Improvement

                                Chair:  Jin Huang, CPC     
11:00-11:15 CPT for Improving the Representation of the Stratocumulus to Cumulus Transition in Climate Models Joao Teixeira, JPL, CalTech
11:15-11:30 CFS Stratosphere Improvement Judith Perlwitz, CIRES, University of Colorado
11:30-11:45 Progress Report: Generation and Evaluation of Long-Term Forecasts with NCEP CFS Wanqiu Wang, CPC
11:45-13:00 Lunch (On your Own)
Session 7c:  Climate Test Bed PI Reviews - Improving ISI Forecasts and Products

                                Chair:  Wayne Higgins, CPC
13:00-13:15 Assessment of CFS Seasonal Forecast over the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands H. Annamalai, IPRC, University of Hawaii
13:15-13:30 A Framework for Incorporating MJO, ENSO, and Storm Track Variability into CPC Probabilistic Extended Range Forecasts Nat Johnson, IPRC, University of Hawaii
13:30-13:45 Spatiotemporal Variations in Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous U.S. and the MJO Charles Jones, ERI, University of California
13:45-14:00 Enabling the Transition of CPC Products to GIS Format Jim Kinter, COLA
14:00-14:15 Progress of Enhancing Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction Products through Synthesis of NLDAS and CPPA Results Eric Wood, Princeton University
14:15-14:30 Objective, Probabilistic, and Verifiable Seasonal Predictions of Meteorological Drought Bradford Lyon, IRI
14:30-14:45 A GOES Thermal-Based Drought Early Warning Index for NIDIS Christopher Hain, I. M. Systems Group at NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
14:45-15:00 Predicting Ecosystems and Carbon Cycle using NCEP/CFS Seasonal-Interannual Climate Prediction Ning Zeng, University of Maryland
15:00-15:15 Afternoon Break (Crystal Foyer)
15:15-17:00  Private Meeting of the CTB PIs and SAB (Location: Continental)
17:00 Workshop Adjourns