S2S Community Workshop Agenda

Navy blue background with four earth images

Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Time	Session/Title	Presenter	Presentation
8:45 AM - 9:15 AM	Opening Remarks	Ray Tanabe and Mark Olsen
9:15 AM - 10:00 AM	Keynote Presentation Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction: Recent advances and challenges	Moderator: Mark Olsen Frederic Vitart	View PDF
10:00 AM - 10:30 AM	Coffee Break
10:30 AM - 12:00 PM	Lessons Learned: Reducing of Model Biases Part I (Invited Talks)	Moderator: Cristiana Stan
10:30 AM	Unified Forecast System -- Configurations towards S2S applications	Avichal Mehra, NWS/NCEP/EMC	View PDF
10:50 AM	(Virtual Talk) Tackling model biases in GFDL climate and prediction models	Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR	View PDF
11:10 AM	Lessons Learned at NASA's GMAO: Reduction of GEOS-S2S-3 Model Systematic Error	Andrea Molod, NASA/GMAO	View PDF
11:30 AM	Towards Reduced Error in Climate Forecasts: A CESM Perspective	Steve Yeager, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research,	View PDF
12:00 PM - 1:15 PM	Lunch Break
1:15 PM - 2:15 PM	Lessons Learned: Reducing of Model Biases Part II (Invited Talks)	Moderator: Cristiana Stan
1:15 PM	Multi-pronged approaches for addressing model biases relevant to S2S predictions	L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory	View PDF
1:35 PM	Towards Reduction of Atmospheric Forecast Errors in Navy ESPC.	James Ridout, U. S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA	View PDF
1:55 PM	(Virtual Talk) Enhancing Air Force Weather Capabilities: Collaboration with NASA on Season to Sub- Seasonal Prediction	Louis Escamilla, U.S. Air Force	View PDF
2:15 PM - 3:15 PM	Discussion Panel: Next Steps and Best Practices	Moderator: Cristiana Stan Panelists: Louis Escamilla Ruby Leung Avichal Mehra Andrea Molod Jim Ridout Frederic Vitart Baoqiang Xiang Stephen Yeager
3:15 PM - 3:30 PM	Coffee Break
3:30 PM - 5:00 PM	Discussion Panel: End User Needs and Engagement Listening to Stakeholders: Lessons Learned from a Series of Stakeholder Workshops Concerning S2S Precipitation Forecasts	Moderator: Chritine Bassett Melanie Schroers Panelists: Mike Anderson Jerry Cotter Simon Mason Amanda Sheffield Wendy Stout
5:00 PM	Adjourn

Thursday, June 6, 2024
Time	Session/Title	Presenter	Presentation
8:45 AM - 9:00 AM	Welcome
9:00 AM - 10:00 AM	Model Errors/Biases and Process Studies Part I	Moderators: Maria Gehne and Steve Yeager
9:00 AM	A process-based evaluation of biases in stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems	Amy Butler, NOAA CSL	View PDF
9:12 AM	A Likely Cause of Rapidly Developing Model Biases in the Western Tropical Pacific	Prashant Sardeshmukh, CIRES, University of Colorado, and Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA	View PDF
9:24 AM	Tropical Convective Variability in the NOAA UFS -A Process Level Assessment	Vijit Maithel, CIRES, CU Boulder/ NOAA-PSL	View PDF
9:36 AM	(Virtual Talk) Tackling Systematic Errors Over the Indian Ocean in Met Office and Partners seamless Coupled Models	Charline Marzin, Met Office	View PDF
10:00 AM - 10:15 AM	Coffee Break
10:15 AM - 11:45 AM	Model Errors/Biases and Process Studies Part II	Moderators: Frederic Vitart and Lisa Bengtsson
10:15 AM	Tropical origins of subseasonal forecast errors for high-impact precipitation events over California during winter 2022–2023	Benjamin Moore, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory	View PDF
10:27 AM	Evaluation of biases in UFS hindcasts at seasonal timescales	Benjamin Green, CIRES/CU and NOAA/GSL	View PDF
10:39 AM	The impact of vertical model levels on biases affecting the MJO teleconnections	Cristiana Stan, George Mason University	View PDF
10:51 AM	(Virtual Talk) MJO Prediction Skill Analysis in CESM2	Raina Roy, Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Australia
11:03 AM	Influence of Atmospheric Errors on Weeks 2-4 California Current System Predictions	Maria Gehne, CIRES CU Boulder and NOAA PSL	View PDF
11:15 AM	(Virtual Talk) Predictive Skill and Bias of Synoptic Variables during Extended Extreme Precipitation Events in S2S Project Models	Melanie Schroers, University of Oklahoma	View PDF
11:27 AM	(Virtual Talk) Accuracy assessment of weekly accumulated precipitation in the NCEP GFS model in La Plata basin	Lucia Castro, National Meteorological Service (Argentina)	View PDF
11:45 AM - 12:15 PM	Open Discussion	Moderators: Mark Olsen and Lisa Bengtsson
12:15 PM - 1:03 PM	Lunch Break
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM	Model Coupling and Development	Moderators: Avichal Mehra and Andrea Molod
1:30 PM	UFS forecast model evaluation and improvement for S2S hydrometeorological prediction in the Western United States	Yifan Cheng, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research	View PDF
1:42 PM	Enhancing snowpack physics in Noah-MP land model to improve S2S prediction of precipitation and droughts	Cenlin He, NSF NCAR	View PDF
1:54 PM	An Overview of the Marine Components in NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and Seasonal Forecasting System (SFS)	Neil Barton, NOAA/NCEP/EMC	View PDF
2:06 PM	A contribution to ocean skin temperature parameterization	Rainer Bleck, NOAA/GSL	View PDF
2:18 PM	Advancements in Physics Parameterizations for Global Earth System Modeling: Unveiling GFSv17/GEFSv13/SFSv1 Physics under the Unified Forecast System (UFS).	Lisa Bengtsson, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory	View PDF
2:30 PM	(Virtual Talk) State-dependent Forecast Skill in S2S-Forecasts with and without Stochastic Parameterizations	Judith Berner, NCAR
3:00 PM - 3:15 PM	Coffee Break
3:15 PM - 4:15 PM	Bias Correction	Moderators: Phil Pegion, Jim Ridout
3:15 PM	(Virtual Talk) Run-time bias correction of CanESM5 and its impact on seasonal forecast skill	Bill Merryfield, ECCC	View PDF
3:27 PM	(Virtual Talk) Empirical and ML/AI Ocean Bias Correction for GFDL SPEAR predictions	Feiyu Lu, UCAR/CPAESS and NOAA/GFDL	View PDF
3:39 PM	Use of AI to Perform Inline Bias Correction of NOAA UFS Extended-Range Forecasts	Stefan Tulich, CU/CIRES and NOAA/PSL	View PDF
3:51 PM	Tropical and Midlatitude S2S Prediction using UFS and Machine Learning	Eric Maloney, Colorado State University	View PDF
4:03 PM	Influence of Trends on S2S Temperature Prediction	Yuan-Ming Cheng, NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory	View PDF
4:15 PM - 5:00 PM	Open Discussion	Moderators: Eric Maloney and Phil Pegion
5:00 PM - 6:00 PM	Poster Session
6:00 PM	Adjourn
6:30 PM	Optional Dinner at Rayback Collective

Friday, June 7, 2024
Time	Session/Title	Presenter	Presentation
8:45 AM - 9:00 AM	Welcome
9:00 AM - 10:00 AM	Data Assimilation and Forecast Initialization	Moderators: Amy Butler and Stefan Tulich
9:00 AM	(Virtual Talk) Ensemble Kalman filter based Land Data Assimilation for the Soil Diffusion based ISBA model	Abhishek Lodh, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping	View PDF
9:12 AM	(Virtual Talk) Correction of Tibetan Plateau Soil Temperature bias and regional and global subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation predictability: The GEWEX/LS4P Project	Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles	View PDF
9:24 AM	Use of Analysis Increments to Advance MJO Prediction in the NOAA UFS	Stefan Tulich, CU/CIRES and NOAA/PSL	View PDF
9:36 AM	Short term model errors that lead to errors in the structure of ENSO.	Philip Pegion, NOAA/OAR/PSL	View PDF
9:48 AM	The NOAA global Aerosol ReAnalysis (NARA)	Bo Huang, CU/CIRES and NOAA/OAR/GSL	View PDF
10:00 AM - 10:15 AM	Coffee Break
10:15 AM - 11:45 AM	Diagnostic, Validation, and Verification	Moderators: Amy Butler and Stefan Tulich
10:15 AM	Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Bias in Summer over the CONUS and its Relationship to Tropical Central Pacific Convection in the UFS Prototype 8	Nakbin Choi, George Mason University	View PDF
10:27 AM	(Virtual Talk) Point-Biserial Correlation-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic S2S Forecasts	Nachiketa Acharya, Science, Analytics, and Innovation (SAI) Consultants LLC	View PDF
10:39 AM	Rapid development of systematic trend errors in seasonal forecasts and their connection to CMIP6 trend errors	Jonathan Beverley, CIRES/CU Boulder and NOAA PSL	View PDF
10:51 AM	Dynamical Filtering of Tropical Variability	David Marsico, CIRES and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory	View PDF
11:03 AM	An Overview of Subseasonal Verification at the Environmental Modeling Center	Shannon Shields, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC	View PDF
11:15 AM	(Virtual Talk) Towards Seasonal Verification in the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Verification System (EVS)	Amandeep Vashisht, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC (Contractor)	View PDF
11:27 AM	(Virtual Talk) Diabatic heating as a diagnostic for predictability on weather and intra-seasonal time scales	David Straus, George Mason University / Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies	View PDF
11:45 AM - 12:15 PM	Open Discussion	Moderators: Stefan Tulich and Chandra Kondrakunta
12:15 PM - 1:03 PM	Lunch Break
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM	Innovative Forecasting Techniques and Tools	Moderators: Yan Xue and Mark Olsen
1:30 PM	Advances in METplus Verification Capabilities for Subseasonal to Seasonal Evaluation	Christina Kalb, UCAR	View PDF
1:42 PM	Hybrid Deep Learning and Model-Analog Forecasting of ENSO	Kinya Toride, NOAA PSL/ CIRES	View PDF
1:54 PM	(Virtual Talk) Analyzing biases in AI Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting: A comparative study of temperature and precipitation predictions	Naveen Sudharsan, The University of Texas at Austin
2:06 PM	(Virtual Talk) Improved subseasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon rainfall using data-driven forecasts of oscillatory modes	Eviatar Bach, California Institute of Technology	View PDF
2:30 PM	(Virtual Talk) Predictability of Summer Surface Maximum Temperature Extremes on Sub-seasonal Scale over CONUS	Murali Nageswara Rao Malasala, CPAESS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD	View PDF
2:42 PM	An Earth system and process-oriented view of the S2S predictability of Weather Regimes using Machine Learning	Jhayron Pérez-Carrasquilla, University of Maryland	View PDF
3:00 PM - 3:15 PM	Coffee Break
3:15 PM - 4:00 PM	Operational and Research Infrastructure Needs	Moderator: Deepthi Achuthavarier
3:15 PM	NOAA’s Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) Development Plan: A Community Modeling Approach to Increase S2S Forecast Skill	Yan Xue, NOAA/NWS/OSTI Modeling Program Division	View PDF
3:27 PM	(Virtual Talk) Development of Hydrostatic Seasonal Forecast System Development within the Unified Forecast System	Xiaqiong Zhou, EMC/NCEP/NOAA	View PDF
3:39 PM	Transitioning Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Research from the American Weather Enterprise to the NWS Operations	Chandra Kondragunta, NOAA/OAR/WPO	View PDF
4:00 PM - 5:00 PM	Panel Discussion: Metrics for Success in S2S Predictions	Moderator: Cristiana Stan
5:00 PM - 5:15 PM	Summary and Closing Remarks	Mark Olsen
5:15 PM	Adjourn

Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science

S2S Community Workshop Agenda

Lessons Learned: Reducing of Model Biases Part I (Invited Talks)

Lessons Learned: Reducing of Model Biases Part II (Invited Talks)

Model Errors/Biases and Process Studies Part I

Model Errors/Biases and Process Studies Part II

Model Coupling and Development

Bias Correction

Data Assimilation and Forecast Initialization

Diagnostic, Validation, and Verification

Innovative Forecasting Techniques and Tools

Operational and Research Infrastructure Needs